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Throughout the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán was notable as the sole European Union leader to endorse the Republican candidate. This backing was expected, considering the Hungarian leader's adoption of controversial ideas including great replacement ideology and the restrictions against journalistic liberties. Commentators point out that Mr Orbán essentially wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Electoral Support Before the Hungarian Vote

In recent days, amid pivotal polls in Hungary only half a year off, Donald Trump offered electoral assistance. With Orbán aims for a fifth straight win governing a country he labels an illiberal state, his political group currently trails in opinion polls. An official trip to Washington resulted in more than Trump campaign souvenirs; it obtained far more significant electoral advantages.

Special Treatment and Fiscal Safeguards

Despite earlier admonishing European states on the need to stop all resource supplies from the Russian Federation, and warning of penalties against countries continuing to purchase Russian crude, the US president consented to allow a particular exclusion for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian petroleum. Per the Hungarian leader, the US government also promised to offer a economic protection to Hungary's capital should it runs into any later issues, given that the European Union continues to withhold substantial EU funds to Hungary because of violations of legal standards.

The particulars of this deal are vague. But Donald Trump recently demonstrated his willingness to support ideological allies after the America provided a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. While Mr Orbán failed to obtain a presidential tour to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting nonetheless proved a successful endeavor.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Trump's actions likely highlighted the strategic importance of the coming election, ahead of which the opposition candidate, Magyar, holds a solid advantage in the polls. European leaders are accustomed not to expect steady principles from the US government, and have grown used to the Trump's moves to diminish the bloc. Yet Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – flagrantly undermines the bloc's aims to eliminate Russian fossil fuel imports by the target date.

• Since 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian crude, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled more than ten billion pounds to the Russian military campaign.
• Simultaneously, Budapest has often employed the blocking vote to hinder advancement in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• As Europe strives to forge a unified and effective strategy for supporting Kyiv, and bolstering its position in any upcoming peace talks, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the international forums remains a significant obstacle.

Opposition Stance

The opposition candidate has steered clear of promising a drastic turnaround on the war in Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while stressing the importance for Hungary to start acting as a positive member state. Following so many years of trolling, Brussels can only wait and hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to core EU ideals, such as the protection of minority groups and the autonomy of civic groups, has remained a source of shame for the European Union. His persistent opposition regarding Ukraine threatens to weaken its security prospects.